China Accords KMT Delegation Privileged Treatment, Scholar：Shows Xi's Sense of Urgency on Cross-Strait Relations
United Daily News, February 11, 2023
Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) recently led a delegation to visit mainland China again, and the mainland accorded the delegation excellent treatment. Yang Kai-huang, a professor of public affairs at Ming Chuan University, expressed that Beijing clearly saw the drastic change in public opinion through Taiwan’s local elections in November last year, and they hope to fully grasp at this chance to stabilize cross-strait relations. Chang Jung-kung, former KMT deputy secretary-general, believes that the main feature of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s overall strategy to resolve the Taiwan issue is “A bigger stick on one hand to show determination, and a bigger carrot on the other hand to show goodwill.” Therefore, after the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held military exercises around Taiwan in August last year, now is the time to show the “bigger carrot on the other hand."
This time, Director Song Tao of the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council, and Wang Huning, chairman designate of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, met with Mr. Hsia at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse and the Great Hall of the People respectively, which surpassed all expectations. According to Yang, these high standards have nothing to do with the KMT itself, but rather the mainland wants the people of Taiwan to understand that what Mr. Xi said in his report to the 20th National Party Congress regarding putting forth “utmost sincerity and efforts to achieve peaceful reunification” are not empty words. The message conveyed is that Mr. Xi still hopes that the differences between the two sides of the Strait can be resolved peacefully and eventually lead to peaceful reunification.
According to Chang, Taiwan, now, has no desire for peaceful reunification, only the mainland is striving for it, so it can only strive for the "prospect" of peaceful reunification. Yet, if Taiwan continues to relentlessly reject the proposal of “peaceful reunification,” the mainland has no choice but to use force to solve the problem.
Chang Lin-cheng, professor emeritus at the Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University, stated that the mainland wants to let the people of Taiwan understand that everything can be discussed except for Taiwan independence. She said that the mainland has seen a change in people's minds from Taiwan's local elections last year, coupled with the PLA military excises caused by former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year, the revelations of the Russo-Ukrainian war on Taiwan, and the U.S. pressure on Taiwan to extend its compulsory military service to one year. Drastic changes in Taiwan's public opinion have prompted the mainland to adjust its Taiwan policy, but this does not mean that China’s view of the KMT has changed.
She said that both Song and Wang made it very clear that “Taiwan independence” and “peace” are incompatible, and “we must stand firm on the 1992 Consensus" and "oppose Taiwan independence", otherwise there will be no cross-strait peace. China sees the KMT very clearly. The KMT does not have a vision for cross-strait unification and only wants benefits. Therefore, China has an attitude of "proceeding with what they do despite knowing it will be futile efforts" towards the KMT. It hopes that the KMT will see the situation clearly and not waver. Up to now, the KMT still follows the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on the issue of American politicians visiting Taiwan. Both parties welcome the possible visits.
According to Yang, Mr. Xi believes that the new five-year term of office is very short, and he is in a rush to let those newly appointed cadres "run to take office" and get political wins as soon as possible. After the 20th National Party Congress, apart from the rapid liberalization of epidemic prevention policies, the most prominent task is cross-strait issues. Mr. Xi is anxious to have some "confirmed" and "qualitative" actions or results in "cross-strait relations" in the next five years. These actions can be "unification" or "confirmation" of Taiwan's status. That is to say, the policy priority of resolving the Taiwan issue has been moved up to the top of the list.
According to Yang, China expects the United States to make big moves on the Taiwan issue this year. Under this assumption, it must show "A bigger stick on one hand, and a bigger carrot on the other hand.” The former is to deal with international external forces, and the latter is to deal with Taiwan. The PLA military exercise in August last year was tough, but the target was the United States. Now Wang and Song’s actions are "a bigger carrot on the other hand" to Taiwan.
According to Yang, it can be seen that Song is more willing to listen to the voice of Taiwan than his predecessor Liu Jieyi. He was willing to make a special trip to Xiamen just to meet Ms. Hung Hsiu-chu and even entertained Taiwanese business people at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. This approach is quite similar to that of Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Chinese Communist Party. When Wang first took over as the director of the TAO, the Taiwan Federation, and the National Taiwan Research Association held a meeting in Hangzhou. During this period, Wang Yi rushed to the meeting, listened attentively and never interrupted, but rushed back to Beijing early the next morning.
According to Yang, Beijing has seen that the Taiwan people's hearts have changed. Of course, part of the reason is the DPP's maladministration, and the other part is the United States’ blatant intention to turn Taiwan into a second Ukraine. Taiwanese citizens are not that stupid. Beijing hopes to seize this window of opportunity to let the people of Taiwan understand that as long as Taiwan can demonstrate rationality, cross-strait relations can develop positively and the two sides can move toward peaceful reunification. However, the biggest "dark cloud" hovering above the two sides of the Strait is still the relationship between the United States and China. If the DPP still allows U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to visit Taiwan this year, Beijing will definitely respond. If so, what it is doing now, resuming positive dialogue between the KMT, may fall in vain.
As for why the relationship between the KMT and Communist Party has suddenly turned warm after being cold for several years, Chang Jung-kung believes that the cause of this is mainly attributed to the KMT’s doings. One example is the KMT’s lukewarm attitude and the DPP’s interference that contributed to the suspension of the inter-party forum between the KMT and the Communist Party since Wu Dun-yi became KMT chairman in 2017. Another case that shows this is when Mr. Hsia was given the cold shoulder on his first party visit to mainland China in August last year, where only Deputy Director Chen Yuanfeng of the TAO came to meet him. This was because KMT Chairman Eric Chu had just visited the United States and said that the KMT would always be pro-American and anti-communist. The willingness to give privileged treatment this time is also related to Chu’s constant emphasis on the "1992 Consensus" recently.
As for Wang’s statement that he wants to resume "normalization of cross-strait exchanges" as soon as possible, Chang Lin-cheng believes that Wang would hope that the cross-strait relationship can return to a state like that of the Ma Ying-jeou period. Due to the three-year-long pandemic, the people on both sides of the strait have increased hatred under the manipulation of the DPP, so he hopes to restore cross-strait relations. Once both sides restore the airlines waypoints, through people’s frequent communication, it would reduce mutual hostility.
However, Chang Jung-kung believes that it is impossible to determine whether China intends to resume cross-strait personnel exchanges and let Mainland tourists come to Taiwan right now. Because if it resumes, the occurrence of incidents, such as Speaker McCarthy’s potential visit to Taiwan, China may conduct military exercises around the island again, trapping mainlanders inside the island. Therefore, tourists from the mainland may have to wait until cross-strait relations become clearer if they are to visit Taiwan. On the other hand, he also said that this can prove that closer cross-strait exchanges may guarantee Taiwan's security. If there are tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of mainland tourists in Taiwan, how can the PLA conduct military exercises against Taiwan? Unfortunately, the DPP can’t figure out this rationale, and only see those passengers from Mainland as not tourists but members of the “fifth column”.